CEMEX SAB DE CV (CX)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

CEMEX Q4 2025 Earnings: Beats on EBITDA, Transformation Delivers

February 05, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

CEMEX delivered a solid Q4 2025 with revenue of $4.25B (beating consensus by 0.2%) and EBITDA of $882M (beating by 3.7%), marking the first year-over-year sales growth since the Mexican election in 2024. The company's Project Cutting Edge cost efficiency program fully realized its $200M 2025 savings target, driving margin expansion across all regions in the second half. Despite the beats, the stock traded down ~3.2% to $11.72, reflecting tempered expectations heading into 2026 amid tariff and FX uncertainty.

Did CEMEX Beat Earnings?

CEMEX beat on both revenue and EBITDA in Q4 2025:

Fourth quarter sales and EBITDA increased at a double-digit rate year-over-year, supported by Project Cutting Edge savings and recovery in Mexico. EBITDA margin was stable for the full year, with significant expansion in the second half as cost efficiencies materialized. All regions reported flat to improved EBITDA margin in 2025.

Full year free cash flow from operations reached $1.4B with a 46% conversion rate (adjusting for severance and discontinued operations), a 50% increase versus prior year.

8-Quarter Beat/Miss History:

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

What Did Management Guide?

CEMEX guided to high single-digit EBITDA growth in 2026, driven by three key pillars:

FX Assumption: Management used 18.25-18.50 pesos per dollar for guidance, noting that for every peso of appreciation, EBITDA could increase by ~$75-80M.

CEO Jaime Muguiro emphasized: "I am very confident about our guidance, and there could be some upside potential."

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Key Inflections:

1. Mexico Recovery Accelerating: Average daily cement sales grew 8% sequentially in Q4, outperforming historical seasonality. Public spending on social programs and infrastructure is gaining momentum, with rural road projects and social housing programs showing early signs of increased activity.

2. First YoY Sales Growth Since Election: Q4 marked the first quarter of year-over-year sales growth since Mexico's 2024 election disrupted demand.

3. Shareholder Returns Activated: Board proposes $180M annual dividend (40% higher) plus $500M share buyback over 3 years.

4. Margin Expansion Materializing: Q4 EBITDA margin expanded by ~5 percentage points in Mexico like-for-like, with EBITDA up 20%.

5. U.S. Record Quarter: U.S. operations posted record Q4 EBITDA with margins near all-time highs.

How Did the Stock React?

CX shares traded down ~3.2% on earnings day, closing at $11.72 versus the prior close of $12.10. The stock has been volatile over the past year:

• 52-Week High: $13.35
• 52-Week Low: $4.89
• Current: $11.72
• YTD Performance: Down from $12.75 at year start

The muted reaction despite the beats likely reflects:

1. Concerns about tariff impacts on Mexico operations
2. FX volatility with the peso
3. Goodwill impairment of $538M recognized in Q4

Regional Performance Breakdown

Key Management Quotes

On Transformation Progress:

"2025 was a demanding year of transformation for our company, one that required discipline, resilience, and a strong execution mindset at every level. Our people delivered on operational excellence." — CEO Jaime Muguiro

On Cost Savings:

"Under Project Cutting Edge, we fully realized our 2025 EBITDA recurring savings target of $200 million, leading to improved margins in all markets in the back half of the year." — CEO Jaime Muguiro

On Shareholder Returns:

"You should expect gradual improvement in shareholder return as free cash flow continues to grow in subsequent years." — CFO Maher Al-Haffar

On EU Carbon Regulations:

"If that regulation comes into place, it will flatten out the price increase curve, but it will not negate the need for industry mid-single digit to high single digit price increases over time." — CEO Jaime Muguiro on potential EU ETS softening

Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

2026 Priorities:

1. Shareholder returns (dividend + buyback)
2. Debt reduction toward 1.5-2.0x target
3. Bolt-on M&A in U.S. aggregates
4. Refinancing subordinated notes in September (spread reset would be prohibitively expensive at 454bp over treasuries)

Risks and Concerns Flagged

1. FX Volatility: Mexico exposure means peso swings materially impact EBITDA ($75-80M per peso)

2. USMCA Uncertainty: No volume upside from trade agreement negotiation baked into 2026 guidance

3. EU ETS Softening: Reports of potential weakening of EU carbon targets; management sees limited impact on pricing strategy

4. U.S. Cement Pricing Pressure: Houston, Northern California, and Mid-South markets saw competitive pressure in 2025

5. Energy Costs: Electricity costs expected to increase in 2026, primarily in Mexico (65%) and U.S. (35%)

Q&A Highlights

On U.S. Pricing (Paul Roger, BNP Paribas): Management acknowledged softer cement prices in coastal markets due to competitive dynamics in Houston, Northern California, and Atlanta. For 2026, CEMEX announced $8/short ton increases across all markets except Houston, effective April 1.

On M&A Strategy (Marcelo Furlan, Itaú): CEMEX is prioritizing U.S. aggregates bolt-ons followed by mortars, renders, and plasters due to synergies with existing products. CEO emphasized disciplined approach: "We will pursue only acquisitions provided that it's accretive to shareholders."

On Mexico Infrastructure (Daniel Rojas, Bank of America): Social housing, rural roads (Caminos Rurales), and railroad projects are already contributing to volumes. Projects for 2026 World Cup venues in Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara are accelerating.

Forward Catalysts

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Related:

• CEMEX Company Profile
• Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
• Q3 2025 Earnings